The Index of Convergence · methodology v1.0
Is any of this actually happening?
Four indicators, one per condition. The group operates all four layers, which means it can measure the convergence rather than assert it — and can be shown to be wrong.
The four indicators
World activity ratio
Reading pending
Is anything actually happening in persistent worlds, or are they still film sets?
MeasureShare of in-world transactions attributable to production or service delivery, rather than to transfer of speculative assets, measured across observed worlds over a rolling quarter.
Why this oneThe 2022 correction happened because parcels hosted no activity. This is the indicator that would have shown it coming.
Standing portability rate
Reading pending
Does reputation earned on one surface count anywhere else?
MeasureProportion of issued credentials verified by a party other than the issuer, without the issuer being contacted at verification time.
Why this oneIdentity has never had a correction because it never arrived. This measures arrival rather than announcement.
Settlement reality
Reading pending
What proportion of earned value actually converts into something real?
MeasureValue redeemed into delivered goods, services or experiences as a proportion of value earned, over a rolling quarter — with delivery confirmed rather than claimed.
Why this oneThe single measure that separates an economy from a simulation, and the one the group is unusually placed to publish because it operates a redemption path.
Governed agent share
Reading pending
What share of agent actions are attributable, scoped and approved?
MeasureProportion of observed agent actions carrying a durable agent identity, an explicit authority scope, and a system-written record — across organisations on the mesh.
Why this oneThe pending correction. If this stays low as deployment climbs, the fourth condition breaks the way the other three did.
Why this index can exist at all
Almost nobody can publish these numbers, because measuring them requires operating the layers being measured. Settlement reality needs a redemption path you run. Governed agent share needs a mesh whose actions you can observe. Standing portability needs credentials being verified somewhere other than where they were issued.
Gord Holdings runs all four. That is an unusual measurement position and it is the reason this index is the studio’s most durable asset — a reference nobody else is placed to produce, which is how an institution becomes the source a category cites without deciding to.
It is also the mechanism by which the thesis can be falsified. If four-condition companies fail at the same rate as three-condition companies, the convergence premium is wrong, and the index will show it before any argument does.
Publication
| Item | Cadence | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Methodology | Versioned; changes published | v1.0 live |
| Indicator readings | Quarterly | First reading pending |
| State of the Convergence | Annual | North Star |
| Underlying data | Published with each reading | Pending |
The one rule. Everything claimed here links to a live surface, a public API, or a commit that can be verified directly. Ambition is labelled North Star. When the work catches up, we update the page — not the other way around.